You’re just about the only person left worth reading. That is of course until Ray Dalio decides to leave his crypt of staggering genius to remind us how the universe actually works.
1. I think you are saying there is a sequence risk, correct? There is a possibility of more pain in the short term, for the long-term gain. Agree.
2. Second, don't you think Russia and/or China (probably both) are standing behind Iran and that increases the risk for USA? Is it because you think it is an insignificant support (they are weak) or is it something else? Can you please explain? It's similar to scenario 4. We may have a Ukraine-like long war with no clear winner and the strait operating at reduced capacity?
1. Sequencing, as always, definitely matters, as does the context. There are certainly good and bad long-term potential outcomes here, but there will definitely be serious pain that is unevenly distributed in the near term.
2. Russia and China are definitely supporting Iran and their support is not insignificant. But neither yet has the capacity to project force in the same way the US currently does, which is, in part, why I think the US attacked Iran, as a hybrid (indirect) attack on China, as I explained in Alea iacta est (https://thematicmarkets.substack.com/p/alea-iacta-est). There are differing types of stalemate. The present “ceasefire” if sustained or the US getting bogged down in a full-scale invasion would be stalemates that favor Iran, Russia and China; a stalemate where Iran is under continuous bombardment, is never able to rebuild, and at threat from civil war is a US win over China, though a less than desirable outcome for all.
Bears repeating: Again and again in the history of human conflict have so few added so much debt upon so many. For perspective, overlay the appendix historical timeline with speculative markets credit expansions, contractions and crises. Madness of Crowds, and Rulers.
Great analysis. The world really is a self healing system at all levels and the hyperbole is something that should be taken with a grain of salt. I see a few scenarios that are far better just a few years down the road. Debt problem next.
I’ll compose some brief thoughts soon, but the brief version is that either my model of Trump is entirely wrong or there is something very different going on from what is being advertised.
You’re just about the only person left worth reading. That is of course until Ray Dalio decides to leave his crypt of staggering genius to remind us how the universe actually works.
Thank you! But I do think you’re being unfair to Mr. Dalio: he can explain more than just our universe with that staggering genius.
😂
Thanks for this.
1. I think you are saying there is a sequence risk, correct? There is a possibility of more pain in the short term, for the long-term gain. Agree.
2. Second, don't you think Russia and/or China (probably both) are standing behind Iran and that increases the risk for USA? Is it because you think it is an insignificant support (they are weak) or is it something else? Can you please explain? It's similar to scenario 4. We may have a Ukraine-like long war with no clear winner and the strait operating at reduced capacity?
Thank you!
1. Sequencing, as always, definitely matters, as does the context. There are certainly good and bad long-term potential outcomes here, but there will definitely be serious pain that is unevenly distributed in the near term.
2. Russia and China are definitely supporting Iran and their support is not insignificant. But neither yet has the capacity to project force in the same way the US currently does, which is, in part, why I think the US attacked Iran, as a hybrid (indirect) attack on China, as I explained in Alea iacta est (https://thematicmarkets.substack.com/p/alea-iacta-est). There are differing types of stalemate. The present “ceasefire” if sustained or the US getting bogged down in a full-scale invasion would be stalemates that favor Iran, Russia and China; a stalemate where Iran is under continuous bombardment, is never able to rebuild, and at threat from civil war is a US win over China, though a less than desirable outcome for all.
Fair enough. Thank you. I do largely agree with your take and reply.
Bears repeating: Again and again in the history of human conflict have so few added so much debt upon so many. For perspective, overlay the appendix historical timeline with speculative markets credit expansions, contractions and crises. Madness of Crowds, and Rulers.
Excellent point. I ran out of time but was planning something just like that!
“There’s battle lines being drawn, Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong”
Great analysis. The world really is a self healing system at all levels and the hyperbole is something that should be taken with a grain of salt. I see a few scenarios that are far better just a few years down the road. Debt problem next.
Thank you! I can definitely see some good scenarios, but sadly I also see some very bad ones. Let’s hope and pray for the former!
Well timed.
Any thoughts on the probability of a durable settlement?
Should the US care if there is a Hormuz toll going forward?
I’ll compose some brief thoughts soon, but the brief version is that either my model of Trump is entirely wrong or there is something very different going on from what is being advertised.